NEWS
IWSR: GLOBAL ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION TO RETURN TO PRE-COVID LEVEL BY 2023
By Susan Lewis
4-6-2021
Credit: Kelsey Knight/ Unsplash
Global beverage alcohol is showing positive signs of recovery, global drinks research think tank IWSR expects total beverage alcohol consumption to return to pre-Covid levels by 2023, with consumption steadily increasing through to 2025.
The think tank also projected alcohol consumption to grow in volume by 2.9 percent by the end of 2021.
Recovery will be boosted by the industry pivoting rapidly in key markets, the USA and China in particular, the momentum of e-commerce and the ready-to-drink category (RTDs), as well as increasing sophistication of the at-home occasion in many markets.
Long-term volume recovery is forecast at 1.5 percent compound annual growth rate 2021 to 2025.
Based on IWSR’s exhaustive examination of data from 160 countries across the globe, total beverage alcohol volume decreased by 6.2 percent globally in 2020, impacted by the near complete shutdown of bars and restaurants around the world.
Though an unprecedented downturn, the 6.2 percent decline was less than previously forecast, as several factors ultimately helped the industry last year, such as: acceleration of e-commerce (up 45 percent from 2019, to reach USD29 billion in 2020), growth of RTDs, strong at-home consumption in key markets, and resilience and growth in the USA and China.
“In many global markets, Covid-19 accelerated the impact and growth of key industry drivers, such as the development of ecommerce, premiumisation, the rise of the ‘home premise,’ moderation, and the need for convenience in product formats,” says Mark Meek, CEO of IWSR Drinks Market Analysis.
“These are the trends that will also underpin the industry’s resilience as it pivots to meet consumers where they are in the years to come. Additionally, across many markets, some segments of the population now have significantly more disposable income than they did in 2019, some of which will be spent on beverage alcohol products.”
Another pre-Covid trend that will continue to accelerate beverage alcohol recovery is product premiumisation. Though the economic impact of Covid-19 has led to restricted spending for some, alcohol is an affordable luxury for those willing to spend.
IWSR forecasts that consumption of premium wine and spirits will increase by 25.6 percent in total volume 2020-2025.
The two fastest-growing categories, according to IWSR forecasts, are no-alcohol spirits (projected at 30.6 percent growth between 2021 and 2025), and RTDs at 10.2 percent growth over the same period.
(the writer can be contacted at: info@thewinechronicle.com)
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